Zhongxin Travel (002707) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Comments: 18-year results have grown significantly but optimistic about the recovery in the second half of 19
18-year performance has increased, flat in 1Q19, affected by individual events in Southeast Asia: 18-year revenue 122.
3.1 billion / + 1.
5%, net profit 23.57 million / -89.
97%; net profit attributable to non-attributed mothers was 3.7 million / -98.
37%, due to the provision for bad debt losses, the impairment of goodwill is mainly the asset impairment loss1.
03 yuan / share, the bottom of the performance is in line with the expectations of the express report.
18-year gross profit margin fell to 0 due to industry pressure.
52pct; sales rate 6.
70% / + 1.
06pct, because the sales expenditure is unchanged but the revenue is broken down; the management fee rate is 1.
02pct, financial 佛山桑拿网 rate 0.
44% / + 0.
41pct, due to accrual of interest on convertible bonds.
Among them, 18Q4 revenue was 27.
9.6 billion / -0.
58%, net profit attributable to mother -1.
8.5 billion (51.08 million in 17 years).
In addition, 19Q1 revenue was 24.
4.4 billion / -0.
82%, net profit attributable to mother 0.
6.5 billion / -1.
37%, deducting non-increase of 6.
The flat performance was mainly due to the relatively high base last year.
Gross profit margin increased by 1.
47 points, and the period rate increased by 1.
Wholesale business skipped, opening stores to accelerate the expansion of retail layout: 1-4Q revenue growth rate before and after high, respectively 11%, 18%, -13%, -1%, mainly due to the shipwreck of Phuket Thailand in July, Bali, IndonesiaIsland destination volcanic 杭州桑拿 eruption and other destination events affect overlapping macroeconomic impacts of 2H18.
View by business 1) Outbound wholesale: 18 years revenue 86.
900 million / -2.
52%, gross profit margin 7.
Among them, Zhuyuan International Travel Service (completed the consolidation of the remaining 30% equity of Zhuyuan in January 19) had a revenue of 48.
9.1 billion / + 1.35%, net profit 9.
6.8 billion / -22.
34%; In 18 years, Zhongxin launched a new brand of Uninide Tourism, opened dual-brand tourism with Zhuyuan’s affiliated panorama tourism, accelerated regional expansion, owned molecular companies in 22 provinces and cities, and developed local start-stop products.
Unitech revenue 37.
9.8 billion / -3.
2) Outbound retail: Expansion is accelerating. Relying on the partnership system, the number of stores increased by more than 300 to 435, with revenue of 23.
03 billion / + 12.
39%, gross profit margin 15.
3) Integrated marketing: revenue 9.
6.1 billion / + 9.
52%, gross profit margin 8.
The 2Q May 1 holiday extended the increase, and the low base effect in the second half of the year improved the performance and rebounded: Southeast Asian tourism still showed a weak trend, increasing by 10 in January.
29%, Chinese tourists fell 12% in February from a year earlier.
It is expected that the company’s performance in the first half of 19 will remain stable on the basis of last year’s high base, and the performance of the second half of the year will be expected to rebound on the basis of last year’s low base.
In 18 years, the company has gradually established landing service companies in Europe, Japan, the United States, Southeast Asia and other places. In 19 years, it plans to launch fast retail networks in more provinces.
The May 1 holiday was extended in 19 years, and external favorable factors such as the practice of the “National Office” of immigration permits will also help the company’s performance.
Earnings forecast: We maintain our EPS forecast for 19-20 to 0.
29 yuan, plus 21 years of EPS is 0.
37 yuan, for a long time the market for grinding overseas games is still broad, maintaining the “overweight” level.
Risk warning: Expected emergencies will lead to a decline in the outbound tourism boom, and retail business is lower than expected.