Tongwei shares (600438): Riding the tide to break the tide and set sail
The key points of the report are to ride the wind and waves, to move forward, and to achieve the leading position in the feed, the outbreak of photovoltaic, the company is a global aquaculture feed production giant.The photovoltaic sector has the second largest capacity reduction in the country and the first in the world in terms of cell capacity. At the same time, the industry has the shortest cost and the lowest cost in the industry.We believe that the internal and external development of the company has shaped the growth path of the leader: 1) 杭州夜生活网 externally, the basis for proving that products and technologies can obtain excess returns; 2) internally, adhering to the ideas of “awake survival” and “driving theory”Management system and corporate culture, excellent management capabilities to build the company’s core competitiveness; 3), in the process of rapid development, good incentive mechanism and career promotion channels, etc. to attract talents, form a positive feedback effect, and further promote the company’s development. Parity has quietly arrived, demand has steadily increased, industry chain technology has continued to advance, costs have continued to decline, and component prices have fallen rapidly under the impact of internal new policies, and parity has quietly arrived.At present, in some overseas regions such as Germany and India, the cost of photovoltaic LCOE is lower than coal power. Domestic distribution has basically achieved parity on the user side, and parity on the ground has gradually arrived.Driven by parity, global installed capacity is expected to explode, supporting steady upward demand in the medium term, and the company’s efforts to significantly benefit. The gradual and gradual layout is gradually and steadily. At the same time as the adjustment indicators are expanded at a steady pace, resource endowments such as electricity prices are optimized, equipment efficiency improvement spaces are gradually narrowed, and the advantages of leading companies with a higher proportion of dense materials are exerted under the trend of high efficiency.Yu stable.At the same time, this round of expansion cycle is nearing its end, and the recovery of the industry is expected to drive corporate profitability upward. Tongwei, as a company that has initially expanded into the expansion field in China, has continued to expand its production capacity. At present, it has increased its production capacity by 8 instead of ranking second in the country.In fact, based on the advantages of rich technology accumulation, integrated coordination of the industrial chain and refined management, the company has the lowest comprehensive cost in the industry.To sum up, under the trend of stabilizing the pattern and leading advantages, the company’s scale has expanded steadily, and its business growth can be expected gradually. With development promoting development, the battery business is accelerating growth. The trend of rapid and efficient battery slices is obvious, and industry concentration has steadily increased.As a global leading company, Tongwei has continued to expand its production capacity rapidly. Currently, its accumulated battery capacity is 12GW. It is expected to further increase to 20GW and 30GW from 2019 to 2020. The leading position is stable.At the same time, Tongwei’s battery cost is the lowest in the industry, and the cost of non-silicon is about zero.25 yuan / W, significantly lower than the industry average of 0.At around RMB 35 / W, we can take advantage of the advantages of the panel business to maintain the best profit level.Initially, under the background of good operating conditions and continuous expansion of production capacity, the subsequent steady growth is worth looking forward to. Combined with other businesses such as agriculture, the company’s EPS for 2019/2020 is expected to be 0.84, 1.12 yuan, corresponding to PE of 17, 13 times, maintain BUY rating. Risk Warning: 1. Increased competition in the industry; 2. The installed capacity of the industry did not meet expectations.