Mingyang Intelligent (601615) Review Report: Clear Strategy Regains Seawind Order
Event: On June 19, 2019, the company announced that it had pre-bid the 400MW wind turbine order of Huaneng Shantou Lemen (II) Offshore Wind Farm Project, and the total bid amount was about 2.6 billion yuan.
Opinion: 杭州桑拿 The company’s domestic offshore wind power leader has gradually changed after it has received another order from Haifeng.
Since Q2 of 2019, the company has successively won the bids for China Guangdong Nuclear Power Shanwei Offshore Wind Project 1 and Project 2 in total.
4GW and the 400MW order for the Huaneng Shantou Lemen (II) project, Q2 single-season wind power orders1.
End 2 of the first quarter of 2019 early.
38GW offshore wind power orders on hand, the company currently has 4 orders for offshore wind power on hand.
18GW, the total amount is about 269.
Offshore wind power orders effectively guarantee the company’s performance in the next three years.
The company’s 2018 fan sales revenue was 61.
US $ 0.9 billion. At present, the company’s offshore wind power orders have reached 4% of sales revenue in 2018.
We judge that there is a high probability that these offshore wind power orders will be completed by the end of 2021 to ensure that they enjoy zero.
85 yuan subsidized electricity price.
At the same time, the company has about 5 orders in hand as of 2019Q1.
44GW, corresponding to 187.
Merged Ulan Qab 1, which was newly awarded to Q2.
4GW (corresponding amount 46.
5 billion) large base orders, etc. The company currently has more than 6 orders for onshore wind power on hand.
8GW, corresponding amount is about 233.
8.8 billion yuan.
Taken together, the company’s current orders on hand have exceeded the 2018 sales revenue of wind turbines8.
25 times, we judge the company to achieve high growth in the next 3 years is a high probability event.
The lightweight large fan overtakes the curve, and the cost advantage of the semi-direct drive technology route gradually appears.
The company won 6 new bids for this offshore wind power project.
45MW-175 budget, with the company’s previous period of 5.
The 5MW main sample is the same series.
The company’s semi-straight driving force scale has a higher degree of integration between traditional doubly-fed and straight driving force, so it has significant advantages in both volume and weight.
The company is deeply cultivating its lightweight large-scale wind turbine plan, and at the same time relies on the internal supply chain system established by the blade itself, so the unit cost advantage of the wind turbine is more and more obvious.
The scale of onshore wind power bidding projects has decreased, and the company’s strategic choice of “big base + offshore” is clear.
According to policy requirements, at present, domestic provinces including Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong have suspended onshore wind power bidding projects in 2019.
In the early stage, the company clearly grasped the policy direction. Onshore wind power development mainly focused on parity large bases, with emphasis on offshore wind power development.
At present, the company is entering the strategic harvest period, and the amount of orders in hand has exceeded 50 billion, which is close to the 70 billion scale of industry-leading companies.
With the tide of existing approved projects in the next 3 years, we judge that the company will gradually introduce the TOP2 rank of internal fans in response to the forward-looking strategic layout.
Earnings forecast and estimation: Considering that the company’s “big base + offshore” strategy is effectively landing, we continue to maintain the company’s EPS 0 for 19-21.
34, 0.51, 0.
66 yuan forecast, and maintain the company’s target price of 18.
92 yuan unchanged, continue to give “strongly recommended” investment rating.
Risk warning: The company’s offshore wind turbine order delivery is less than expected; wind turbine prices have fallen more than expected.