SAIC Group (600104): Performance is slightly lower than expected

Event: The company released its 2019 annual performance forecast, and realized net profit attributable to its mother in 1919 of approximately 25.6 billion (-28.

9%), net profit after deduction was 21.4 billion (-34%).

In the fourth quarter, net profit was 48.

100 million (-42.

3%), deducting non-net profit of 26 billion.

Based on the 19-year eps, it is predicted that the 20-year eps will be 2 respectively.


86 yuan, corresponding to 9 years in 20 years.

7Xpe, maintaining “Highly Recommended-A” rating.

Comment: In the first and fourth quarters, the pressure on the expense side broke through, and the performance is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 25.6 billion (-28) over 19 years.

9%), net profit after deduction was 21.4 billion (-34%).

In the fourth quarter, net profit was 48.

100 million (-42.

3%), deducting non-net profit of 26 billion.

OEMs usually make year-end distribution points for accounts receivables, inventory, and other assets in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the company’s accrual of impairment in the fourth quarter will be the main reason for the fourth-quarter performance substitution.

At the same time, the company’s weak market in 2019 is still actively deploying innovative business, which is also expected to produce certain errors.

2. In the year of pain and turning in 2019, GM and Wuling pressure exceeded 2019, and the company’s total sales were 6.24 million (-11.

SAIC-Volkswagen sold 2 million (-3%); SAIC-GM sold 1.6 million (-19%); SAIC sold 670,000 units (-4%); SAIC Wuling sold 1.66 million (-19%).

SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC have independently demonstrated the level of transition in the industry. SAIC-GM is affected by the three-cylinder engine, and SAIC-Wuling is affected by the pressure change of the commercial passenger structure.

3, 2020 young wear into battle, optimistic about the company bottoming out in 2020, the automotive industry is expected to continue to consolidate in the first quarter and gradually pick up, and continue to improve in the second to fourth quarter.

As the industry leader, the two two major companies are common in 2019. GM Wuling is making strategic adjustments and its market share has declined.

Looking forward to 2020, GM will actively launch a new four-cylinder model after experiencing the pain of a three-cylinder engine; Wuling completes the strategic transformation of commercial vehicles, and the Baojun series launches nine new vehicles to attack the passenger vehicle market; Volkswagen and independent brands are steadily developing new ones, and fundamentalThe situation is optimistic.
At the same time, 2020 is also the year when the company’s electrification will usher in a breakthrough.

While various companies are accelerating the introduction of new energy and new products, the long-awaited Volkswagen MEB platform is about to be domestically produced by SAIC in 2020Q4.

The company’s first ID.

CROZZ fully considers the preferences of the Chinese market and is expected to start 北京夜生活网the year of heavy MEB volume.

基本面叠加MEB、上汽奥迪等事件催化,公司有望迎来EPS\PE 双升之路。We are optimistic about the market’s return to the value of the company’s performance and short-term pressure.

Risk warning: terminal demand recovery is less than expected, new model sales are less than expected