CITIC Securities: The funding round is coming to an end. The second round of growth will be in Q2.
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Original title: Strategy Focus | Three major sources of signals for the end of the first round of “filling pits” this year Source: CITIC Securities Research Qin Peijing Qiu Xiang Yang Lingxiu Lu Pin Yao Guangfu The first round of “filling pits” of A shares this year is mainly driven by loose liquidityAfter the various signals are clear, their subsequent kinetic energy will tend to decline, and the market will also enter a period of peace.
A shares are still in the middle of the “well-off bull” channel. It is expected that the second round of growth driven by the entry of industrial capital and the replacement of fundamentals will start in the second quarter.
The market ‘s short-term minimum capital inertia inflow and upward mobility, but as the current policy focus shifts to orderly resumption of work, monetary policy goals have grown more steadily, and macro easing has been difficult to exceed expectations.
This round of market capital rotation is also coming to an end, and individual investor entry is still the main driver in the near future.
It is recommended to pay close attention to the three types of signals at the end of the “fill in the pit” market, including fundamental signals such as resumption of work and February data, liquidity signals such as interest rate trends, and market signals such as transaction volume and style differentiation.
A-shares are still in the channel of “well-off bull”. The kinetic energy of the first round of “filling pits” will tend to decline this year, and the market will enter a period of peace. It is expected that the second round will be driven by the entry of industrial capital and the recovery of fundamentals.The rise will start in the second quarter.
This round of “filling pits” is driven by the increase in liquidity easing. Macro market liquidity is eased. Various types of funds will enter the market after the A-share “golden pit”. As of February 21, the main indexes have been significantly repaired:The differentiation between the large and small disks has intensified, and the 16/30 CITIC Tier 1 industry index has exceeded the pre-holiday closing.
In addition, the current level of resumption of work is not high, 武汉夜网论坛 and short-term fundamental expectations are still lacking in benchmarks.
Pay attention to the three major signals of the end of this round of “filling pits” market 1) Fundamental signals: resumption of work and confirmation of February data.
The entry of individual investors is the most important driver of A-shares in the near future. The acceleration of resumption of work and consumer replenishment will divert the income and funds of individual investors, weakening this driver.
In addition, after the release of the macro, meso, and key company’s operating data in February, the market quoted this round will undergo a “calibration” of fundamentals.
2) Policy signals: interest rate trends.
Ease of liquidity is the main logic of “filling the pit” market, and the decline in interest rates is the most important signal of easing; if interest rates stop falling and stabilize, or even rise, it may signal the end of the market.
We recommend that short-term interest rates focus on SHIBOR, and long-term interest rates focus on 10-year Treasury bonds (including Treasury futures quotes); policy interest rates are directly concerned with the distribution of the benchmark interest rate adjustment expected to land.
3) Market signals: transaction volume and style differentiation.
The cumulative turnover of the US $ 117.8 billion board of directors for the venture board reached a record high in all A shares.
The 8% share is also very close to the highest level in history (23%).
GEM means that the ratio of P / E estimates to CSI 300 is 5.
13, close to the level of mid-2013 and March 2015, has reached the high level under normal market operation.
The above indicators show that the current concentration of attractions and style differentiation in the market is already very high.
Policy focus shifts to orderly resumption of work. Monetary policy targets are heavier and more stable. Growth ended on February 21, and personnel in first-tier / new first-tier cities gradually returned to work and replaced.
8% / 38%, the overall level and the rate of rise are not high, it is expected that follow-up policies will continue to focus on orderly resumption of work, and after the rapid spread of successful local cases of resumption, the speed of resumption of work in the next few weeks will increase significantly.
In this context, the focus of monetary policy has also shifted from the stable anticipation of post-holiday risk prevention to the steady growth of wide credit.
Early, emergency after the initial festival.
The US $ 8 trillion public market launch has been basically replaced; after the MLF and LPR interest rates have fallen, the window for lowering the benchmark interest rate for deposits has opened: the policy has paid more attention to the loosening of bank credit channels, and the loosening of macro liquidity is harder than expected.
The capital inflow is at least inertia but the round of capital relay is nearing completion. 1) The allocation of capital transfers can get the return average of the inflow scale.
In the past three weeks, the size of the net inflow of northbound funds was approximately US $ 30/44 / 6.5 billion, of which the transaction-type exchange rate conversion decreased and the proportion of allocation-type inflow transactions increased.
Last week, the net foreign inflow of configuration-type US $ 7.2 billion has returned to the previous average level.
The short-term impact of the A-share replacement in FTSE Russell’s increase in proportion is limited, and the gradual fluctuations in foreign countries will be smoother in the future.
2) Public placements are already high, and private placements have significantly increased short-term.
On February 21, the positions of stock-based / partial-stock products in public funds were estimated to be 89.
6% / 87.
1%, which is already at a historical high level; and the newly launched products have limited marginal impact on the market.
According to our usual communication and survey of the private placement ranking network, private placements in most of the past two weeks have significantly increased their positions.
3) Leverage and individual investors are still important sources of incremental funds.
Under the high-risk rapid repair, the financing balance rose to US $ 10828 billion on February 21, an increase of US $ 43.9 billion during the week, which was the second highest value since 2016 and only lower than the end of February 2019.
The most noteworthy thing is that residents’ passive attention to the stock market has increased passively in the past month, and individual investors ‘recent admissions are relatively obvious: the Baidu Index shows that the attention of“ stock account opening ”has reached the level of early March 2019;Recently, the phenomenon of “deposit and move” by individual investors is relatively obvious. A-shares are still on the move in the short term, but momentum will gradually decline. Funds still have inflow inertia, and the main contribution recently comes from individual investors.
2 weeks A shares are still up.
However, after the above types of signals are clear, the market’s action energy will tend to weaken and enter a peaceful period.
Our overall allocation strategy in the near future remains unchanged; in the short term, we can pay attention to the expected reduction in the benchmark interest rate on deposits to catalyze banks to make up.
Risk factors for resumption of work are significantly slower than expected; stock performance public opinion disclosure is significantly weaker than expected.